Maike **: corn short-term shocks, market breakthrough fatigue

Internationally, yesterday's US corn continued its upward trend. The US corn contract rose 6.75 cents, or 1.1%, and closed at 609 cents per bushel. From the trend point of view, the previous day the market successfully broke through the 600 cents integer mark, last night, the market stood firm at the integer mark, indicating that the current price remains relatively strong, coupled with the weakening of the US dollar, provided strong support for the market, the market today Lido, the US Congress has passed a one-year extension of the tax benefit policy for ethanol production, which will provide a certain level of demand support for corn as a biofuel. The current sharp increase in the price of corn in the international market has caused the panic buying in the Far East, especially in Japan and South Korea, and the current low quality Australian wheat in the market has been in short supply. Feed manufacturers are afraid that due to the reduced production of global food this year, future corn and wheat prices will rise even more, which has formed a certain degree of support for the overall market.

On the domestic front, corn 1109 contract opened higher yesterday, shocked, fell 3 yuan a day, a decrease of 0.13%, closing at 2334 yuan per ton, from the market trend, the recent corn 1109 contract in the 2300 line to get support at this price At the same time, it not only guarantees the interests of farmers in grain sales, but also meets the country's control over the excessive price increase of agricultural products (18.19, -0.27, -1.46%), and has reached a relatively stable trend. Therefore, the market is in the middle of a long-short game, and the current price It is more like a product of market compromise. Under the premise of ensuring the people's livelihood and regulating agricultural product prices in the country, it is expected that the market will not show too obvious breakthrough before the Spring Festival. In terms of form, the current market bullish shape remains intact, but with the deepening of state regulation, the speculative atmosphere in the market has been very light, and the trading volume has shrunk by more than 10 times compared with November. From the spot market performance point of view, as with the corn 1109 contract, the spot price did not appear significant fluctuations, the farmers in the market are still optimistic about the market price, the grain is still waiting to see serious. However, grain companies mostly adjust their prices flexibly based on their own purchase volume. As a whole, there is no major change in the fundamentals of supply and demand, and the market is generally operating smoothly. In general, it is expected that the corn 1109 contract will maintain a turbulent trend in the short term, and there is no possibility of a breakthrough.

In the spot market, the spot price remained stable yesterday. The average national corn price reached 1978 yuan. The specific quotation is as follows: Harbin is 1,860 yuan per ton of corn, Songyuan City is 1,840 yuan per ton of corn, and Dalian Port is (4.20, -0.02, -0.47%) per ton. Corn is 2,070 yuan, Qinhuangdao is 2,060 yuan per ton of corn, Shijiazhuang is 1,860 yuan per ton of corn, Shanghai Port is 2,060 yuan per ton of corn, Weifang City is 2,120 yuan per ton of corn, Zhengzhou City is 1,980 yuan per ton of corn, and Nanning is 2,000 yuan per ton of corn. Chengdu has 2,300 yuan per ton of corn, and Xi'an has 2,000 yuan per ton of corn.

The operation suggested that from the recent trend of the corn 1109 contract, after the correction for the early-stage decline, the market has maintained a relatively stable trend in the short term and it is expected that this trend will have a certain degree of continuation. It is recommended that investors maintain the current market conditions. More shocking ideas, more than a single early stage can be appropriately limited earnings departure, leaving a little bit of the end can be expected in the short term the market will continue the trend of cowhide, there is little chance of a breakthrough.

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