Scientists predict future trends in infectious diseases

A few days ago, Professor Huang Jianshi of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences completed the research on the future development trend and monitoring project of infectious diseases. The study clarified the various influencing factors that affect the occurrence and prevalence of infectious diseases in the future, confirmed the wide range of social, economic and environmental factors that may affect infectious diseases in China, predicted the development trend of these influencing factors, and evaluated Can the information on these trends be used to improve our ability to detect and monitor infectious diseases.

The project uses a combination of epidemiology and sociology to analyze the existing infectious disease surveillance systems in China, the United Kingdom, the United States and Japan. A literature review of the laws and regulations related to infectious diseases, the structure and content of surveillance systems, and the influencing factors of infectious diseases and epidemics in the above four countries. Based on a new questionnaire generated by the revision of the China-UK Foresight Phase I project questionnaire, the research team conducted a structured interview with 181 experts in infectious diseases and related fields in China to predict possible trends in the influencing factors.

By analyzing and synthesizing the consensus of senior experts, the researchers identified 47 major risk factors affecting the occurrence and prevalence of future infectious diseases in China, and the possible trends of these factors in China in the next 10 to 25 years. Through a large number of studies, the researchers found that 17 infectious disease risk factors may increase in 10-25 years, including aging, climate warming, immigration and urbanization; five infectious disease risk factors are in 10- The current situation may be basically maintained in 25 years, including intensive farming and unemployment; the risk factors of 8 infectious diseases may decrease in 10-5 years, including income gap, poverty and malnutrition, and nosocomial infection; 17 species Factors conducive to the control of infectious diseases may increase in 10-25 years, including education levels, water and food safety, and public health awareness. The researchers further analyzed the consensus of Chinese experts and identified which factors should be considered for inclusion in existing disease surveillance systems to improve the ability of the system to detect and identify infectious diseases.

Huang Jianshi pointed out: "Experts believe that 44 of the 47 infectious disease influencing factors should be considered for inclusion in the existing infectious disease surveillance system. Currently, 25 of the 44 factors have the feasibility of being immediately included in the monitoring system." The research used the method of cooperative development between China and the UK, and was supported by the British Embassy in China during the research.

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